Coronavirus. After Italy, the wave of the epidemic hits Spain and threatens the United States

With more than 6,800 deaths since the start of the epidemic, Italy has been severely hit by the Covid-19. It has even recorded more deaths than China. Trends in Spain and the United States suggest that such a scenario may happen again.

After Italy, Spain became this Wednesday, March 25, the second country to overtake China in the number of coronavirus deaths. China totaled 3,281 deaths on March 24, with a greatly slowed epidemic, compared to 6,820 in Italy, and 3,434 in Spain.

The progression of deaths is particularly worrying: Spain could catch up with or even exceed Italy in the number of deaths in the coming days. This Wednesday, there were 738 deaths in Spain in 24 hours, against 683 in Italy.

In France, according to Santé publique France, 1,100 people died in hospitals because of the coronavirus. However, this figure does not take into account all deaths occurring at home or in nursing homes.

Here is the number of deaths formalized in recent days by France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States:

The Spanish curve is marked by a sharp increase in deaths in the past two days, especially in retirement homes, where the army has intervened.

What scenario in the United States?

In the United States, the death toll was officially Wednesday March 25 in the evening of 827, against 600 on March 24, and there were Tuesday evening 60,000 officially declared cases. It is the country that has seen the highest increase in cases since the beginning of the week. Counting from the day of the 100th confirmed case, the United States registers an even steeper progression curve than that of Italy or Spain:

For WHO, it could be the next epicenter of the epidemic. Donald Trump plans to quickly lift the restrictions to boost the economy.

The entire territory of the United States has not yet been affected. The main foci are in New York State (more than 15,000 cases Tuesday, 192 deaths), Washington State (2,000 cases, 96 deaths), California and New Jersey:

More than 427,940 cases of infection have been officially diagnosed in 181 countries and territories since the start of the epidemic for nearly 20,000 deaths.

This number of diagnosed cases, however, only reflects a fraction of the actual number of infections, with a large number of countries now testing only those cases requiring hospital care. In France, the daily testing capacity is now 9,000 per day.

The director of Italian Civil Protection, Angelo Borrelli, in an interview with the daily La Repubblica, estimated Tuesday, March 24, that nearly 640,000 people could be infected in Italy, for 64,000 confirmed cases.